Real or Not Real- Part 1

As we are roughly a quarter of the way through the 2012 MLB season there have already been plenty of surprises and disappointments. Some teams that we thought were locks for the post-season are sitting in last place and teams we thought were cellar dwellers are sitting in first. So the question become which of these teams will sustain there success or failure over the course of the season. So lets jump right in and analyze these surprise teams.

Baltimore Orioles- 28-16 (1st AL EAST)

The Offense definitely seems legit with the young stars in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters powering the team. If it was not for Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones could be considered an MVP candidate at this point hitting at a .306/.349/.594 clip with 14 HR and 6 SB. As a team they have scored the 4th most Runs and SLG% but despite that success they have had some issues that make you concerned. The main issue is that they lead the American League in strike out percentage and are only 9th in the AL in walk percentage. So what should you take from all these numbers? There are a couple of things, first the Orioles offense relies heavily on scoring via the home run as they lead the AL in that category. Secondly they are not a particularly disciplined team at the plate as the lead the AL in strikeout percentage and are near the bottom in OBP (On Base Percentage). When you look at this lineup it makes you question the sustainability as they are going to need to rely on a couple of young stars who have never really had this type of success or been relied upon to carry a team into the playoffs.

Now after looking at the offense there are already many questions but with the pitching staff even more questions are raised. At a quick glance at the team stats everything looks ok but a more in depth look is where the problems arise. The first issue is that they lack a true ace, now while that may not sound like a very "scientific" critique its still a valid point. Almost every good playoff team has an ace and if a team lacks one that presents match up issues down the road. Ace's are also good at stopping losing streaks and winning key games so again without one this presents problems.The second issue is depth beyond their top 3 starters there is a significant drop off in talent. Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter are far from quality major league arms at this point and are filling out the back of their rotation. This is a staff that is benefiting from a high scoring offense and a dominate bullpen led by closer Jim Johnson. These pitching issues combined with the Orioles below average defense lead to some major concerns.

I really think it is going to be a struggle for the Orioles to maintain this division lead especially considering how tough the AL East is and that the teams competing against them have more talent. This team reminds me a bit of the 2011 Cleveland Indians and i have a feeling they are really going to tail off in the second half as they have some major flaws.